Trádáil Domhanda Greamaigh Trátaí in 2020/2021

Most of the sector's growth is based on "low concentration" products
Two dynamic forces are currently driving the world trade in tomato pastes: firstly, the countries that have historically been processing countries are losing ground as they compete with the rest of the world; secondly, exports of "low-concentration" products are the only ones to record significant progress.

The most recent world trade estimates put the amount of tomato paste exported over the July 2020–June 2021 marketing year at around 3.46 million metric tonnes. While obviously slightly lower (-1 percent ) than the record level of operations reported the previous year (2019/2020, with 3.51 million mT), the volumes shipped last year appear to have capitalized significantly on the gain made during the Covid pandemic crisis. The 2020/2021 result is indeed 2.5 percent higher than the average of the three immediately preceding marketing years (2017/2018 to 2019/2020). However, although a comparison with the marketing years of the 2016/2019 period (excluding the record result of 2019/2020) shows an increase of nearly 5 percent , the 3.46 million mT traded last year also places 2020/2021 in the direct continuation of the progress recorded during those "pre-Covid" years. In other words, the 2020/2021 "score" is not yet outside the framework of "mechanical" progression, and it will therefore be necessary to wait for final results of the current 2021/2022 trading year – and probably the following ones – to know if the campaign carried out during the pandemic has really raised the average level of global dynamics or if it was only a one-off episode with no lasting effect on consumption habits on a global scale.

Feidhmíocht an TOP10
Mar sin féin, ní léiríonn na figiúirí seo ach cuid de réaltacht na trádála eachtrach. Tá dhá dhinimic mar bhunús ag éabhlóid na trádála domhanda i taos trátaí le roinnt blianta anuas, ar féidir a n-éifeachtaí a fheiceáil cheana féin agus is dócha go n-athróidh siad aghaidh ár dtionscail san fhadtéarma, ó thaobh na tráchtála agus na talmhaíochta de.
Baineann an chéad athrú le dáileadh scaireanna den mhargadh i measc na dtíortha atá chun tosaigh i soláthar domhanda taosrán trátaí. Le 15 bliana anuas, tá laghdú suntasach tagtha ar sciar na dtíortha TOP10 (liosta a fhéadfaidh athrú ó bhliain go bliain), ó níos mó ná 96 faoin gcéad d’iomlán lastais ar fud an domhain in 2006/2007 go dtí níos lú ná 92 faoin gcéad in 2020/2021. Tá trácht déanta ar roinnt cúiseanna agus meicníochtaí leis an aistriú seo inár dtuarascálacha cheana féin, lena n-áirítear infheistíochtaí a rinne roinnt tíortha ar mian leo a spleáchas ar fhoinsí eile a laghdú agus a gcaiteachas ar sholáthairtí seachtracha, féindóthanacht a bhaint amach ag cuid de na tíortha sin. iad, agus fiú teacht chun cinn tíortha próiseála agus/nó onnmhairithe nua ar an ardán idirnáisiúnta. Tá an laghdú suntasach agus, ó shroich an buaicphointe i 2006/2007, níl méadú tagtha ar dhíolacháin eachtracha na dtíortha TOP10 ach ag meánráta bliantúil de 2.3 faoin gcéad, ar mhargadh domhanda atá tar éis fás ag ráta 2.7 faoin gcéad in aghaidh na bliana. Is dócha go gcuirfidh an brú méadaitheach ó arduithe géara ar chostais, go háirithe maidir le fuinneamh agus lasta (farraige agus bóithre), na forbairtí le déanaí seo chun cinn trí tháirgeadh áitiúil agus foinsiú réigiúnach a spreagadh. Cé go mbaineann crapadh coibhneasta na n-asraonta le margadh domhanda atá ag forbairt faoi láthair (chomh éiginnte agus a d’fhéadfadh an fhorbairt seo a bheith), chuidigh sé leis an aeráid iomaíochta atá faoi aimsir cheana féin idir príomhghníomhaithe an tionscail a neartú.

The rise of "low concentration" products

The growing share of the world market that is "escaping" the hold of historical leaders of the sector weighs all the more heavily on the operations of these big players for the fact that the decline is coupled with a gradual but profound change in the nature of the tomato products that are being requested on the market. For the last ten years, world trade in paste with a soluble solids content between 12 percent and 30 percent (customs codes 20029031, 20029039) and above 30 percent (customs codes 20029091 and 20029099) has tended to stagnate, the former at around an annual average of nearly 1.28 million mT of finished products, the latter at around 1.34 million mT. In both cases, the average annual growth (CAGR) is close to zero. At the same time, the quantities of tomato pastes with a soluble solids content of less than 12 percent (customs codes 20029011 and 20029019) have increased significantly, from 320,000 mT of finished products in 2011/2012 to 520,000 mT in 2020/2021, which is an average annual rate of approximately 5 percent . "Low concentration" products are now experiencing strong development, which is also due to the technical qualities of viscosity, color, etc. that technological advances in processing have made possible. The result of this new orientation of the world market is a sluggish growth in the quantities of raw material mobilized annually for worldwide trade, specifically affecting the countries and companies whose activity is most based on international exchanges. 
De réir staitisticí oifigiúla custaim, is féidir meánráta fáis bliantúil na n-onnmhairí TOP10 de ghreamú (arna léiriú i gcoibhéis amhábhar) le deich mbliana anuas a bheith níos lú ná 0.8 faoin gcéad. Tuairiscítear go bhfuil laghdú tagtha ar chainníochtaí measta na dtrátaí úra atá i gceist ó 17.2 milliún mT go 17.5 milliún mT thar an tréimhse atá faoi chaibidil. I bhfocail eile, is cosúil gur tháinig laghdú de réir a chéile ar an meánábhar solad intuaslagtha sa ghreamú a mhargaítear ar fud an domhain le dhá bhliain déag anuas, ó níos mó ná 28 faoin gcéad in 2009/2010 go dtí níos lú ná 27 faoin gcéad in 2020/2021. Freagraíonn an t-athrú seo ar cháilíocht a éilíonn an margadh do laghdú thart ar 6 faoin gcéad de na cainníochtaí a úsáideadh, agus mura ndéanann sé difear ach don chuid den trádáil dhomhanda i ghreamú trátaí a sholáthraíonn tíortha TOP10 na hearnála, is féidir a thionchar a thomhas mar sin féin. ar an scála domhanda agus ar an scála le deich mbliana anuas.

This strong trend is currently focusing the growth of trade overall almost exclusively on low-concentration products. But, given the relative weakness of its contribution to the whole, both in terms of finished products and in terms of fresh equivalents, the segment is clearly not in a position to guarantee strong growth for the sector. On the one hand, the rise of low-concentration products, together with the relative stagnation of the other categories (28/30% and >30 faoin gcéad ) , a chuireann le cothabháil ar an ráta forbartha na trádála ag leibhéal an-íseal. Ar an taobh eile de, tá tábhacht na hearnála i dtéarmaí coibhéis trátaí úra fós imeallach agus is beag éifeacht a bhí aici faoi láthair ar éabhlóid na gcainníochtaí de thrátaí úra atá súite ag an trádáil dhomhanda ar fad agus, mar thoradh air sin, trí an earnáil phróiseála ar an iomlán.

Roinnt faisnéise breise
Éabhlóid onnmhairí na bpríomhthíortha próiseála agus onnmhairithe.

Comparison of the average annual growth rates of exports of the different grades of paste, 

before and after 2011/2012: over the last nine years, the only segment to have shown 

significant growth is that of concentrated purées with a solids content of less than 12 degree Brix.